What comes after the crisis?
Across Europe, besides isolated regional lockdowns, easing measures are being introduced. The summer holidays are beginning. A lot of things seem to be "normalising". But there are many unknowns: How will the global recession affect us? Are the supply chains reorganising? Who are the winners and losers of the crisis?
The following text is based on an extract from the trend report "The Next Normal – Consumer Behaviour After Covid-19", which you can obtain from our website.
The Corona crisis has hit the economy hard. Gigantic economic stimulus packages are being launched worldwide. The European Union and its member states alone are investing 3.9 trillion euros in the economy.
But no one knows exactly how the recession will unfold, which will be the most severe since the Great Depression of the 1930s. In its trend report "The Next Normal", the GDI presents six possible courses of events:
According to Carmen Reichhart, Chief Economist of the World Bank, a W-shaped course is not so unlikely, as a second wave is always a possibility as long as no vaccine is available.
This economic shock "has disrupted supply chains globally and trade big-time. The World Trade Organization tells you trade can decline anywhere between 13% and 32%. I don’t think you just break and re-create supply chains at the drop of a hat," Reichhart said.
But who will emerge from this crisis as a winner? The retail and cultural sectors will not. Due to Corona-related restrictions, restaurants, cinemas and theatres remained closed and can reopen only under conditions that are sometimes not profitable. "How do we know which retailers are going to come back? Which restaurants are going to come back? Cinemas?", Carmen Reichhart asks. Travel companies and airlines also emerge as clear losers.
The winner is certainly the delivery sector. Whether online shopping, food delivery or the delivery offers of supermarkets. Spending on food, especially online food, has risen sharply since people have been staying at home and cooking more often: