7th European Consumer Trend Conference

„THE INVENTION OF THE INTERNET IS LIKE THE INVENTION OF THE WHEEL“

Interview with Doc Searls (PDF)

1. Who controls the Internet?

Nobody. The Internet can't be controlled. At least not at the level that really matters, i.e. the protocols (TCP/IP in particular), which distribute the intelligence and power to an unlimited number of end-points instead to leaving control in the hands of somebody at the centre.

2. But the Internet is more than its protocols, isn't it?

Right. It's also a "network of networks", each of which is in turn controlled by a changing number of companies, governments, universities and other institutions. Some of these exercise their powers of control more rigorously than others. China, for instance, ensures strict control of the traffic on its networks. On the other hand, "backbone" providers, which make such things as underwater cables available to users, do not exercise any control at all. They function more as transporters, but of course could, I think, create a lot of problems – if they wanted to. In general parlance, the Internet is also the Web, i.e. the Domain Name System, or DNS in short. The standards applied in it are set by ICANN, an independent organisation that is exposed to considerable political and also technical pressure from its users. I wouldn't say that ICANN "rules" the Internet. It lays down the standards, but nobody can control what is done with them.

3. The Internet was developed by researchers and engineers. What does this mean for the power structures within it?

You can see this in, for instance, the unwritten rule of the Internet, which some of us refer to as NEA: nobody owns it, everybody can use it, anybody can improve it. The same applies to open source software. The most important Internet services at the present time (search functions, clouds, etc.) are based on open source codes. Anything that can be used in the Internet becomes powerful. Power in the Internet means usability. I perceive this as something that is almost natural, like the periodic table of elements.

4. To what extent has the power structure in the Internet changed over the last ten years?

The biggest change we've seen has been the new role of governments and large providers. Because the Internet is increasingly being used on mobile devices, there has been a shift of influence to mobile providers. In the long term, however, I believe the usability of the Internet referred to above will prevail whatever the trend. And this usability cannot be controlled by any one body.

5. What about the future: who will be the new power-holders in the Internet?

We have to reckon with several parallel developments:
European smartphone users will tire of paying massive bills. We can expect to see the abolition of national paywalls as soon as states realise that their economies profit from low-cost mobile data transfer. But that will take years, and in the meantime the mobile providers will continue to exercise power and control. At another level, cloud providers such as Amazon, Google or Rackspace will expand their position of power by earning a very great deal of money. One consequence of this will be an increased demand for data upstream capacity. Today's asymmetrical data transfer speeds are designed for such activities as video down- and uploading. However, storing and accessing data in clouds requires a completely different upstream speed. But it's the individual users that will enjoy the greatest gain in power as more and more tools that make us independent of organisations become available.

6. What's your estimate of the power of social networks such as Facebook?

It's individual tools that will push back the boundaries, not social networking or social media. Such things are fine, but Twitter, Facebook and the rest of them still control and limit what the individual can do. The next essential step is to develop personal, individualised tools based on open source software and open standards. These will enable individual users to exercise more control over their own data.

7. How powerful is the Internet politically?

How powerful is the alphabet? We have to think in such categories. The Internet is a step in civilisation that we now can no longer do without if we want civilisation to grow and function. In, say, a hundred years from now, we'll rate the invention of the Internet with the invention of the wheel. Both are used by almost every feature of civilisation. Politically and economically, the Internet will be more important than telephony, television, radio and newspapers. Because it absorbs everything and at the same time offers countless additional possibilities.

But perhaps the biggest change is this: cost and distance will be virtually zero in the Internet. Because we think of distance as a physical variable, this is a genuine challenge for us. We'll learn that, in the context of communication, distance will be equated with zero. We're only now beginning to understand the impact of the Internet on our civilisation and personal life. I like to compare the history of the Internet with that of our universe. We're now a few minutes after the Big Bang and all we really have is great heat, some light elements, but no galaxies as yet . In other words, it's early days and we've still a long way ahead of us.